The PEEB Cool GHG Engine turns GIZ's policy and investment advisory — across 11 countries — into defensible IKI, GCF and NDC numbers, without ever inventing data.
GIZ-GLO-PEEBGHG · Project G-010981-02111 countries · one activity eachPrepared by HEAT GmbH · Königstein
HEATGmbH · Königstein
PEEB Cool · GHG Engine
The argument in one slide
One engine turns PEEB's advisory work into defensible IKI, GCF and NDC numbers — for every one of the 11 activities
The job
Report real impact
GIZ must report indirect GHG impact to IKI (binding, Mar 2027) and contribute to GCF FP194 — and make the case that policy work counts.
The gap
Phase I had no numbers
A single uniform formula couldn't fit policy and investment activities alike, so no ex-ante figure was ever produced.
The fix
One model, three pathways
Classify each activity, apply a stage-based Result Factor and tier uncertainty, emit IKI + GCF + NDC — gaps visible, nothing fabricated.
HEATGmbH · Königstein
Situation
Situation
PEEB Cool must report real impact — to IKI by March 2027, and to GCF FP194 — across 11 countries
0
PEEB Cool countries · one EF advisory activity each
2 tracks
IKI (binding) + GCF FP194 (voluntary) report the same impact
hard IKI annual-update deadline — no more deferrals
GIZ at kickoff
"All the cases have to have a number at the end of the day — and we want to move policy work from under the radar to on the radar."
HEATGmbH · Königstein
Complication
Complication
Phase I produced a methodology but no numbers — because one uniform formula can't fit policy and investment alike
01
Wrong shape for the work
An incentive programme produces buildings and kWh saved. A policy produces a framework with future potential. One calculation can't honestly do both.
02
Primary country data is often unreachable
The honest result was repeatedly "we can't compute a number" — so nothing was reported, not even ex-ante.
03
No way to show attribution
No structured way to show how much of the impact PEEB's advisory can credibly claim.
HEATGmbH · Königstein
Resolution
The answer
The PEEB Cool GHG Engine: one model, three pathways, three reporting tracks — zero fabricated numbers
HEATGmbH · Königstein
Methodology · 1 of 3
Methodology · builds on, not replaces
It keeps the existing PEEB identity ER = BE − PE − LE — and adds the three things that were missing
+
Three pathways (B / C / D)
Match the calculation to the activity type instead of one uniform formula.
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6-stage Result Factor + 3 data tiers
Turn milestone progress and data quality into an auditable, conservative number.
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IKI / GCF / NDC reporting + a gap tracker
One row per activity feeds every report; missing data is visible, not invented.
HEATGmbH · Königstein
Methodology · 2 of 3
Methodology · pathways
Three pathways match the calculation to the kind of activity
Policy work (D) is framed as a credible contribution range, not a false-precision point — which is exactly how GIZ gets to put policy "on the radar" honestly.
HEATGmbH · Königstein
Methodology · 3 of 3
Methodology · honesty by design
A 6-stage Result Factor and 3 data tiers turn uncertainty into an auditable, conservative number
conservative by default
We publish the low end of the range. The upper end is scenario analysis only.
Every number ships with an explicit uncertainty band tied to its data tier — so a defensible figure today gets sharper as country data arrives.
HEATGmbH · Königstein
Inputs & Outputs
What goes in, what comes out
Activities in, reporting out — one row per activity drives every report
Inputs (per activity)
What the country dialogue provides
Building types · number of buildings · floor area · baseline & post-measure energy use · grid emission factor · rollout plan · beneficiaries · co-finance · the activity's pathway, stage and data tier.
A conservative tCO₂e/yr + lifetime per activity, with an uncertainty band — then aggregated and repackaged for each audience.
IKI SI1 · SI3 · SI4GCF MIT 1.0/2.0/3.0/5.0 · ADP 1.0country per-country sheet + NDC mapQA gap tracker
the spine
The Activity Register holds one row per country × activity. Fill a yellow input cell and the IKI, GCF and NDC numbers recompute live — no copy-paste, no parallel spreadsheets.
HEATGmbH · Königstein
Output · IKI (binding)
Output · IKI — binding for GIZ
IKI gets SI1 / SI3 / SI4 — both the attributable slice and the full PEEB impact, conservative by default
SI1 · mitigation
tCO₂e/yr + lifetime
Split into technical support (pathways B/C) and enhanced policy frameworks (pathway D). Policy enters only once a deliverable is accepted — never as a paper promise.
SI3 · beneficiaries
direct + indirect, female share
Counted once, gender-disaggregated, blank-safe — so a partly-filled portfolio still reports cleanly.
SI4 · capacity
institutions strengthened, by type
Sums the actual institution count per capacity type — policy, technical, financial, M&V.
attribution, handled honestly
The engine always shows two figures — the IKI-attributable share and total PEEB impact. The ~12% funding key is a toggle, off by default, never hardcoded.
HEATGmbH · Königstein
Output · GCF FP194
Output · GCF FP194 — voluntary contribution
GCF FP194 gets MIT 1.0 / 2.0 / 3.0 / 5.0 and ADP 1.0 — the same number, repackaged
MIT 1.0
tCO₂e reduced/avoided — = Σ central, on the GCF 15-year horizon
MIT 2.0/3.0
policies / regulations strengthened — D activities at stage ≥ S2
MIT 5.0
co-finance mobilised (EUR)
ADP 1.0
direct beneficiaries
One source of truth, two reporting languages. The GCF figure carries an explicit caveat: indirect EF impact only — AFD's Investment-Facility direct reductions are reported separately, no double counting.
HEATGmbH · Königstein
Output · country & NDC
Output · the country view
Every country gets its own sheet and a contribution map to its NDC / LT-LEDS
›
A one-page per-country sheet
Activity, pathway, the number with its band, beneficiaries, capacity, co-finance — and the country's own open-data gap list.
›
An NDC / LT-LEDS contribution map
Maps each activity to the national measure it supports, with % of target where buildings are isolated — flagged where they are not. A mapping, not a national simulator we'd have to invent.
MARTUNARGNGAALBMKDLKADJIIDNCRIMEX
HEATGmbH · Königstein
Integrity backbone
Why GIZ can publish it
Every number is traceable to a source — or it's a visible gap, never a guess
PEEB Annex 3
"In the absence of key data it is better to not report indirect mitigation."
Today all 11 activities ship blank — every figure is a live formula waiting on a Country Data Request. The gap tracker lists exactly what's missing, who owns it, and how the tier upgrades when it arrives. That honesty is what makes the methodology publishable at M5.
→
Using the engine in six steps
From a blank template to a country hand-over file — the same six moves for every activity, every reporting cycle.
HEATGmbH · Königstein
How to · step 1
1Step 1 of 6 · Config & Reference
Open Config & Reference and confirm the defaults and toggles
One sheet is the single source for every lookup — so a country officer never edits a formula.
GWP set AR5 (override to AR6 if required)CONSERVATIVE_MODE = Yes (low-end RF)IKI key = Off (per-row override available)attribution construct Gross × FF × RFreference periods PEEB 30y · GCF 15y
HEATGmbH · Königstein
How to · step 2
2Step 2 of 6 · classify the activity
Classify the activity: pick its pathway, stage and data tier from dropdowns
Three dropdowns set the whole calculation logic. The Result Factor and uncertainty band are then derived automatically.
Pathway · B / C / DStage · S0 … S5Tier · T1 / T2 / T3
example
Tunisia · PROMOISOL → Pathway D (policy), Stage S0 (planning), Tier T3 (primary ANME data). The engine now knows it's a policy contribution range with a ±10% band.
HEATGmbH · Königstein
How to · step 3
3Step 3 of 6 · enter sourced inputs
Enter the sourced inputs as CDRs return — or leave the gap flagged
Fill a yellow cell only with a value the source literally supports. No data yet? It stays blank and appears on the gap tracker — the number never gets faked.
enter
floor area · EUI · grid EF
The physical basis for the reduction, with a source note in the adjacent cell.
enter
Funding Factor · stage evidence
The share of the effort PEEB can credibly claim, and the milestone reached.
or flag
leave the gap
Blank input → a CDR question + owner on the tracker. Honest beats invented.
HEATGmbH · Königstein
How to · step 4
4Step 4 of 6 · read the result
Read the live per-country result — central, band, lifetime, beneficiaries
The country tab updates the instant an input lands. No re-running, no second spreadsheet — the number, its uncertainty band and its NDC line are all there.
central
conservative tCO₂e/yr (low-end RF)
band
low – high for scenario context
lifetime
over the 30-year reference period
±%
uncertainty from the data tier
HEATGmbH · Königstein
How to · step 5
5Step 5 of 6 · read the roll-ups
Read the IKI, GCF and NDC roll-ups — your reports, already written
Three report tabs aggregate all 11 activities into exactly the indicators each audience needs. Copy the figures straight into the IKI annual update or the FP194 performance report.
IKI Report
SI1 · SI3 · SI4
attributable + total, conservative
GCF FP194
MIT 1.0–5.0 · ADP 1.0
same number, 15-year horizon
GAP tracker
what's still missing
per-country completeness + CDR list
HEATGmbH · Königstein
How to · step 6
6Step 6 of 6 · hand a country its own tool
Hand a country its own carve-out file — a clean, standalone tool
One click exports a single-country workbook: the country's row, its reporting summary and its gap list, with all formulas live. The country officer runs it themselves — and GIZ runs the remaining ~24 activities the same way.
HEATGmbH · Königstein
The case for GIZ
The case for GIZ
One master engine + per-country carve-outs: prove it on 11, scale to the rest, hand each country its own tool
Credible
A number for every activity
Including policy — framed as a defensible contribution range. That is exactly the "policy on the radar" case GIZ wants to make.
Defensible
Audit-ready, conservative
Every figure traces to a source or a flagged gap. Built on IKI/GCF conservativeness — designed to survive donor scrutiny.
Scalable
Reusable beyond PEEB Cool
Config-driven and country-agnostic. The same engine runs the remaining ~24 activities and seeds the M5 sector publication.
verified
Built and recalc-verified — 0 formula errors. Master workbook + 11 standalone country files, ready for the inception-phase CDRs.
The ask
This is the M2 engine — built, verified, and the foundation for the M5 sector publication.
1 · Lock the start-four
Issue CDRs for Albania, North Macedonia, Argentina and Tunisia using the gap tracker.
2 · Close the definitions
Confirm FP194 MIT/ADP and IKI SI3/SI4 wording, and per-country grid factors.
3 · Hand over & train
Distribute carve-outs to country officers; ready the WP4 training on the same tool.